Movies · resolved market
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e6de677b490ea498bf6d8313f5befc680c8361911ae7a22ae9d420d6610020c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 1c | 10,297$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 7c | 5,574$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.64 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 44c | 4,932$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 3c | 4,219$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…22dbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,657$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 5c | 2,325$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,012$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 44c | 1,867$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.18 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 10c | 1,857$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.87 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 1c | 1,828$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cb…ecb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,441$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,154$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 32c | 879.53$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.82 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 3c | 799.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 632.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 61c | 550$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 23c | 531.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 26c | 516.1$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 56c | 450$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 75c | 416.73$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 409.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 371.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…3e80backed Yes | 12c | 370.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 59c | 340$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.58 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 3c | 322.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…c1c0backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…18b5backed Yes | 17c | 299.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 62c | 288.2$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 23c | 245$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 49c | 231.45$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 191.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 48c | 186.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 42c | 180.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 33c | 149.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 66c | 148.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 106$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 34c | 104.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…7d32backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 93.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 15c | 86.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 72c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 78.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…222ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 62c | 42.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 42.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 54c | 40.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…b451backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…1282backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae49…6323backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…8b4dbacked No | 63c | 27.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18.5m?this page
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?No won
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?No won
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.