Earnings · resolved market
Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d692f441135e3098a20c81fb9f4830df37ccfbd1a9f6ff37a84f7559a59bd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 23c | 878.41$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 850.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…bf60backed No | 45c | 722.25$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 77c | 419.23$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1a…1ae1backed Yes | 71c | 409.78$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 345.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 63c | 296.43$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked No | 42c | 236.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 27c | 192.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 22c | 156.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 70c | 135.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 52c | 130.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…088dbacked Yes | 59c | 125.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 23c | 125.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 75c | 106.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 19c | 100.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 79c | 99.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 13c | 96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed No | 20c | 81.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 24c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 76c | 65.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 63.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 21c | 52.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…dd0fbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…cf1abacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 80c | 39.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ef…cb02backed Yes | 76c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…9c1abacked Yes | 75c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 74c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.