Earnings · resolved market
Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb095bd306cbf3920e010ffdc12e5b828d01a9276266f3a916cf1a92f71e30e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 24c | 999.8$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.31 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 19c | 864.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.56 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 74c | 328.24$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd96…e28dbacked Yes | 75c | 281$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 25c | 200.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…daeebacked Yes | 70c | 137.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 32c | 101.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…0da1backed Yes | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 15c | 76.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 34c | 73.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 56.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 25c | 45.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 70c | 35.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked Yes | 70c | 34.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 72c | 27.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…4bfcbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…8dfcbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9bf5backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 78c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 76c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Yes | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.