NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca9100c006e2eab339053f9caa985cc844ef458ad0e9312e0cd6a2042941dd29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lakers | 51c | 68,615$34,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,618.13 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a04…0822backed Grizzlies | 49c | 16,327$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d9…65d0backed Grizzlies | 49c | 14,046$6,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,882.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…b438backed Grizzlies | 49c | 11,020$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 53c | 9,584$5,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,508.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Grizzlies | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Grizzlies | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,839.96 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…d53cbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 7,063$3,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,461 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 6,122$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…00afbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 4,971$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Grizzlies | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Grizzlies | 45c | 4,073$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Lakers | 52c | 3,975$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 40c | 3,510$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies | 50c | 3,158$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lakers | 61c | 2,547$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.77 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lakers | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.06 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Lakers | 52c | 1,925$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 45c | 1,901$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.61 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…004dbacked Lakers | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Grizzlies | 46c | 1,744$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.08 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Lakers | 55c | 1,332$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.11 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 1,046$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.41 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Lakers | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Lakers | 52c | 807.69$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.69 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Grizzlies | 46c | 715$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.9 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Lakers | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Lakers | 52c | 458$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.84 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 52c | 263.73$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 245.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Lakers | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Lakers | 57c | 224.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Lakers | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Lakers | 52c | 186.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Lakers | 56c | 183.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 44c | 178.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…39dbbacked Lakers | 53c | 134.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Grizzlies | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Lakers | 53c | 116.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lakers | 52c | 106.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Grizzlies | 70c | 105$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Lakers | 77c | 102.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Lakers | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Lakers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…a9a3backed Grizzlies | 45c | 93.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Lakers | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Lakers | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Lakers | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Lakers | 52c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Lakers | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 59.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Lakers | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Lakers | 51c | 54.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Lakers | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Lakers | 52c | 47.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Lakers | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Lakers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Lakers | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Grizzlies | 46c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Lakers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Lakers | 52c | 28.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Lakers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…65c5backed Lakers | 58c | 24.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Lakers | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Lakers | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Lakers | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…2bdcbacked Lakers | 57c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +42%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Grizzlies vs. LakersLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.