NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce81fe7400ee0964dd3a3cb16cf8bd8aff75d5ccf892abc5df6bb9e0a4981ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 50c | 4,007$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.5 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 3,709$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.16 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Over | 51c | 3,353$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.94 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Under | 48c | 2,535$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.8 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 2,172$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.12 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 2,138$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 50c | 1,980$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 1,480$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 51c | 1,467$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.06 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…004dbacked Under | 51c | 1,406$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.95 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 51c | 1,055$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 723.5$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.96 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 558.55$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.03 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 458$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 386.07$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Under | 53c | 282.08$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 50c | 268$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 51c | 195.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…b5f6backed Under | 53c | 188.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 155.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 31c | 146.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Over | 52c | 133.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 51c | 132$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 76c | 99.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…0842backed Under | 51c | 92.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…3ea8backed Under | 50c | 88.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 88.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 73.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b99…c42bbacked Under | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc0…31f8backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 52c | 37.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 31.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe00…78edbacked Under | 49c | 22.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Grizzlies vs. LakersLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.