NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2490b513e8343e46e9f9fb17189108f2e31497a204019a0d6ff2d61f7dfa9ba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 4,799$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 2,590$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Under | 46c | 2,200$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 50c | 1,092$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 40c | 615$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 576.93$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.46 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Over | 50c | 440$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 43c | 326.39$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.81 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 50c | 310$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 18c | 289.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 230.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.92 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 59c | 220$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Under | 53c | 188.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 53c | 184.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Over | 50c | 170.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Under | 54c | 149.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Under | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 94.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Under | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…a1e5backed Under | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da9…ad9ebacked Under | 52c | 57.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Under | 46c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Under | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 31c | 43.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 42.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 35.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Grizzlies vs. LakersLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.