NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x559ebb87e0ac82f5a6e661471373bf205abdeb3145030f35372ff3c9df432b97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0352…3292backed Over | 51c | 3,723$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.19 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,263$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 53c | 1,071$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 1,030$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.62 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 56c | 893.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.25 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 67c | 681.57$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.18 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 600$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 546.67$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.67 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…d78abacked Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 345.64$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.44 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…d1d9backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 238.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 33c | 233.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf57…7b2fbacked Over | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 55c | 219.29$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 170.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 56c | 143.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 24c | 134.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…ec16backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Under | 53c | 111$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 10c | 109.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…d527backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Under | 49c | 98.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 36c | 80.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…0adcbacked Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Under | 46c | 59.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 41c | 58.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Under | 49c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 78c | 27.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Grizzlies vs. LakersLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.