Movies · resolved market
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a1d7517bdd095b7692db1afb8bdca5a07ab066534a6213244700fb04c614621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110f…8f39backed No | 46c | 3,676$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.89 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 53c | 2,352$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.49 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 52c | 1,438$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 58c | 1,270$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.41 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 66c | 1,047$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.52 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 52c | 1,043$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.76 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 47c | 973$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 46c | 928$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.12 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 54c | 798$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.92 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 53c | 761$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.33 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 53c | 749$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 48c | 739$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed No | 50c | 694$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 52c | 635$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 29c | 483.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 44c | 454$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked No | 47c | 421$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.13 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 52c | 345$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.1 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 52c | 328$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed No | 48c | 328$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 48c | 226$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 47c | 190$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 55c | 137.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 135$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 56c | 115.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…e29fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…e923backed No | 44c | 91.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 50c | 89.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes | 47c | 71.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…6563backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 31c | 62.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 60.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed No | 44c | 55.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 53.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…5afabacked Yes | 44c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 29c | 36.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 54c | 31.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked No | 45c | 30.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…e0debacked No | 49c | 28.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 41c | 27.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…f2b3backed No | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.