Movies · resolved market
Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc56e8e1a93b35c460a71be6a46a34a000fbe25da2e62c26d3e3d9046cbdb6a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 50c | 15,824$7,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,883.11 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 45c | 10,002$4,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,471.09 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 63c | 4,524$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.63 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…0c28backed No | 51c | 3,657$1,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed No | 52c | 2,942$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…3763backed Yes | 7c | 1,328$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,126$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.36 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked No | 55c | 1,022$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…e923backed Yes | 34c | 954.46$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…53c1backed No | 72c | 564.21$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 29c | 528$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 52c | 497$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.53 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 45c | 492.12$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 45c | 392.59$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.11 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…88babacked Yes | 54c | 367.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 70c | 286.94$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 71c | 253$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 54c | 244$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 71c | 225$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 50c | 200.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…8aa4backed Yes | 55c | 189.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…3e38backed Yes | 49c | 155.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d6…997abacked No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…e633backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked Yes | 48c | 131.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 127.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 54c | 121.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 111.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…e29fbacked Yes | 49c | 109.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7322…de07backed Yes | 30c | 101.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8119…50bfbacked No | 26c | 100.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +290.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…40c6backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 53c | 99.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…b70cbacked No | 55c | 68.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 56c | 54.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed No | 56c | 53.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…13febacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…1867backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…bee7backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…6e81backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8522…7e5fbacked No | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…0e7fbacked Yes | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…7a6bbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 50c | 33.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…bb33backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…f3a4backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…3994backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 49c | 30.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…f668backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd779…eef1backed No | 53c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…21b3backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30b…3befbacked No | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 55c | 23.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Yes | 50c | 23.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb6…1b70backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…f286backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4200…5d5cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…5f02backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.