Middle East · resolved market
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c43910ed821497f49e84f942c16fd81c7daa789c0a51821d93443b7d8384ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 28c | 2,306$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.76 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…d76abacked No | 63c | 1,729$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 1,669$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.23 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 38c | 1,500$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.37 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,226$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.2 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 10c | 1,078$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 38c | 912.05$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.83 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 62c | 786.36$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.36 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed Yes | 15c | 671.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed No | 80c | 630.21$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 2c | 555$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 16c | 473$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 15c | 456.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…2393backed No | 77c | 433.04$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 9c | 415$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 9c | 375$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 8c | 345$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 251.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 7c | 243.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 5c | 239$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 7c | 213$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 209.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 17c | 197.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 9c | 186$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 184.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 9c | 182$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 64c | 180$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 7c | 174$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked Yes | 9c | 166$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 10c | 166$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 162$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 8c | 142$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e028backed No | 57c | 122.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 40cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 23c | 122.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 11c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 37c | 105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…9964backed No | 62c | 71.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…d81fbacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…ec9abacked No | 68c | 58.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…14e1backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…753bbacked No | 67c | 46.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 64c | 44.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…2677backed Yes | 41c | 36.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…2398backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.