Movies · resolved market
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc45cb612bc9d286fa59e9c33ffc525643a2018337919a0f7b897c73bb8f1cb7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked Yes | 15c | 713$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 14c | 708$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes | 16c | 683$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…8cdcbacked Yes | 15c | 665.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 14c | 552$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked Yes | 15c | 465$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 12c | 430$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 15c | 411$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 15c | 371.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 14c | 349.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes | 14c | 344$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 11c | 338$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 11c | 282.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 15c | 277$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes | 15c | 268.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 10c | 251$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed Yes | 15c | 248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 15c | 248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 15c | 225$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 15c | 221$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 15c | 214$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 15c | 210.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 197.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 14c | 154$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…22b1backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Yes | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 112.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 15c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Amy Madigan (Weapons) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.