TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Amy Madigan (Weapons) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,682 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes2c3,600$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+101.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No44c1,314$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.013754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes50c1,162$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.4928528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes14c1,142$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.885311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No49c843$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed Yes28c824$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.722142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes12c810.3$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.579745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes53c806$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.9929926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No72c783$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.242352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ba…5173backed Yes53c755$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No49c616.01$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.012420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes49c525.39$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2648236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No47c488.98$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.285324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No49c459.98$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.593330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No47c459.67$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.84920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes55c455.7$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.98476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-87.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No55c444.97$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.073240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f83…7bf4backed Yes53c432.31$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2271060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd544…4d5ebacked No56c412.95$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.441361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b1d…a1e3backed No49c354.15$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.381442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes56c353$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.081030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes55c320$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.027136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecec…4ee2backed Yes30c320$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No51c302.38$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8513130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No52c294.21$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.823130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dfe…a257backed Yes30c293$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd7…ac70backed Yes29c284$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes28c258$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.242466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes52c254.91$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1334544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f07…2036backed Yes40c244.62$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.61827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No59c234.3$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.157448.6%36 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73bc…6011backed Yes30c231$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c230.31$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3236538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd33a…8e5dbacked Yes29c229$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…c4edbacked No45c219.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.982832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes50c216.37$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0923741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes43c216$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4624634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e2b…0f57backed Yes52c211.48$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8151…7259backed No48c211.36$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.74520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No53c209.47$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.281729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c45…d063backed No70c209$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No79c199.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No58c187.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.796729.9%20 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes39c183.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.376222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3321…fefbbacked Yes50c183.06$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ea…bcbcbacked Yes29c183$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed No72c182$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.962250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No42c175.94$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6910244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed No72c160$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.83246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1584…71b6backed No40c149.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.71546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c138.34$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No51c137.72$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d64…8e5ebacked Yes42c128.72$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No51c125.82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8213040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xacca…9f90backed No71c122$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafc2…d32ebacked Yes51c118.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+38.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c114.5$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2414337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd530…d087backed Yes29c113$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0784…1430backed No70c112$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b2…faafbacked No70c111$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes46c110$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9726641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes47c110$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.734358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb4…1fb8backed No71c109$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3d4…8f8bbacked Yes30c107$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…ced7backed No71c107$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc7…ad5bbacked Yes57c105.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No43c104.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.773036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ec…663bbacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe22…66b3backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-79.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes50c99.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505957.6%34 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf2…d257backed Yes30c99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a94…454ebacked No70c97$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2100…2e40backed Yes52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+65.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09ee…81b5backed No70c94$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No48c90$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.82330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9990…4c06backed No71c90$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85fb…a73dbacked Yes30c89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a00…c3cbbacked Yes45c88.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes57c87.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63d1…f721backed No71c85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2d…42f4backed No70c84$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8bd…8bd5backed Yes30c83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea19…01bcbacked Yes30c82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5911…d6f1backed Yes30c82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No44c75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.758345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ec…8692backed Yes55c72.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick62cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0691…7f55backed Yes29c72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No44c69.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.885242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27e…9066backed Yes30c69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c0…3d73backed No70c69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb332…c6dabacked No70c68$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496c…c137backed No71c67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e7…4c59backed Yes30c65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…3467backed Yes30c64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c1…6d42backed Yes29c64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c92…a5ffbacked Yes29c63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd54f…c2febacked No71c63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfddb…a455backed Yes30c61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.