AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadbf3c03b0d1f52e30e964171361e9014994c62db78c0553a2a8e44c6f90e2db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 5,771$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 66c | 4,499$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.04 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 33c | 4,246$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,858.97 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 39c | 3,023$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.45 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 72c | 1,425$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.31 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 7c | 1,408$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…a713backed No | 8c | 1,407$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 13c | 1,378$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.65 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 68c | 1,285$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.97 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,250$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.67 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked No | 29c | 1,122$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.33 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 1,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Yes | 71c | 902.96$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.06 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 17c | 875$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 749.71$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.13 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 54c | 693$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.78 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 668.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 73c | 645.36$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.36 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 3c | 597.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 6c | 465.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 6c | 459.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 6c | 451.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 418.69$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 6c | 394.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 5c | 384.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…5a2abacked No | 6c | 357.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 5c | 346.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 15c | 310$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 74c | 309.43$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 300.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 71c | 278.87$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 244.57$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 50c | 243.68$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 56c | 241.03$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…9eaebacked No | 7c | 217.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…b42cbacked Yes | 56c | 202.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 8c | 160.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 8c | 157.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 146.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 14c | 142.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.19 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 128.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 28c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 49c | 69.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…fbe9backed Yes | 72c | 60.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes | 52c | 59.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…3e9ebacked No | 36c | 58.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 54c | 56.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…2d9dbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 50.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 35c | 50.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 31c | 49.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 26c | 44.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 36c | 43.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 29c | 42.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 56c | 41.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 36c | 36.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed No | 49c | 34.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 53c | 33.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.