AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x859bb27ae70f50ba201453c8f59f38805ee1ba9c19dc9119529b737bda8e55d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 8,345$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9018…0ae5backed Yes | 3c | 2,273$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…35a7backed Yes | 3c | 2,163$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,997$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84a…a9a5backed Yes | 3c | 1,994$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x289f…d918backed Yes | 3c | 1,894$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf1…af27backed Yes | 3c | 1,882$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cf…0516backed Yes | 1c | 1,716$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,076$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…05babacked Yes | 2c | 912.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 912.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…add7backed Yes | 2c | 760$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 577.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7786backed Yes | 5c | 570.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 2c | 562.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e81dbacked Yes | 2c | 521$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…66b9backed Yes | 2c | 435$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…be2abacked Yes | 2c | 423$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.