AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b1a0e26e9ad2d259836c638e25118fda1f3e977576ede653f8c6603355ea028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 9,713$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 12c | 2,063$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.35 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,608$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 5c | 1,448$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 2c | 904.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 3c | 714.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 289.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 224.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 217.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 9c | 180.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 177.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…8295backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 149.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 10c | 99.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 88.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…9498backed Yes | 12c | 83.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…a46cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 73c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.