AI · resolved market
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c83906498572657c88ef592d6c2beaf9f9582faf7b24287bcf4a78d8c088327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 49c | 2,005$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.89 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…48b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,773$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62a…627fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,632$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f69…51debacked Yes | 4c | 1,561$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed Yes | 1c | 1,533$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…d25bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,471$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,462$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.22 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…6233backed Yes | 4c | 1,192$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 21c | 1,180$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 53c | 1,169$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.1 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7e88backed Yes | 4c | 1,090$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 23c | 1,001$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2e…391ebacked Yes | 4c | 892$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc8…b8f0backed Yes | 4c | 834$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…2d9dbacked Yes | 42c | 706$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 27c | 615.39$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 74c | 578.72$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…fedabacked Yes | 52c | 578.32$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 25c | 500.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 29c | 487.86$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.76 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed No | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 303.3$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59f…8e24backed Yes | 4c | 282$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 272.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 253.25$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 234.43$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked Yes | 44c | 226.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 65c | 220.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 42c | 217.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78f3…6517backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 215.48$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 210.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 207.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 67c | 190.86$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 174.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 173$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 145.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 32c | 119.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 26c | 116.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 111.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…d7a0backed Yes | 35c | 100.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…e5ccbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +285.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…f314backed Yes | 35c | 97.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 49c | 81.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 79.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 75.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…a505backed Yes | 35c | 64.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 22c | 60.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…e65ebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes | 31c | 59.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 51.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 51.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666c…8759backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 30c | 44.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…c9ffbacked Yes | 36c | 42.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…a82cbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ec…a385backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 36c | 35.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 72c | 34.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 49c | 29.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 22.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45fc…35c4backed No | 51c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 20.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 75c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.