AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa91d95e2aa7a995812c407c18222e10248e3bfa2609dcecb9b06f6b0fae4a849
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…cea5backed Yes | 4c | 1,939$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…d689backed Yes | 1c | 1,661$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…eb10backed Yes | 1c | 1,630$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 1,592$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 12c | 1,496$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.31 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,269$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…7a87backed Yes | 4c | 1,182$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…c79fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,129$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa0…fc96backed Yes | 4c | 1,115$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…8c3ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,067$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…2955backed Yes | 2c | 1,046$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…7632backed Yes | 4c | 1,024$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d0…52ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,022$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…509bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,018$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…2822backed Yes | 2c | 989$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…d7c0backed Yes | 4c | 986$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1068…724fbacked Yes | 3c | 949$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881c…68afbacked Yes | 3c | 938$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285c…d137backed Yes | 6c | 899.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…5626backed Yes | 3c | 885$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0f…cf1abacked Yes | 3c | 863$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…3ba1backed Yes | 3c | 860$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6d…37debacked Yes | 2c | 780$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…a530backed Yes | 2c | 756$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…477ebacked Yes | 3c | 752$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…9952backed Yes | 3c | 743$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…666bbacked Yes | 3c | 674$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a1…5c00backed Yes | 2c | 664$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…a0e5backed Yes | 2c | 634$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 8c | 620.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e58…a3d2backed Yes | 2c | 610$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…825abacked Yes | 3c | 565$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…99cfbacked Yes | 2c | 524$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…0730backed Yes | 2c | 517$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 488.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 482.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…6780backed Yes | 3c | 479$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…072abacked Yes | 3c | 417$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…a6adbacked Yes | 3c | 411$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 376.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 10c | 373$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 326.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 11c | 316.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 306.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 11c | 91.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.