Stocks · resolved market
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9e371d860a2ad29d0445f657afc46eb03a80e3821d8c86e0b7287fa0bedfec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 64c | 2,730$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.89 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 17c | 1,403$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 44c | 1,373$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.9 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…747cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,312$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Yes | 26c | 1,290$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.28 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41db…1536backed Yes | 45c | 863.62$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 24c | 844.26$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.83 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 57c | 714.09$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.14 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…d4b0backed Yes | 76c | 610$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 36c | 546.15$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked No | 33c | 520$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 502.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 28c | 455.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 65c | 406.47$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 400$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 33c | 382.7$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.91 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 76c | 316$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…1cb8backed Yes | 73c | 312.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 74c | 298.92$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed No | 51c | 278.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 40c | 273.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Yes | 52c | 271.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 17c | 270.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed Yes | 67c | 270$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…cf0bbacked Yes | 75c | 269.2$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 57c | 267.62$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed Yes | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 58c | 244.59$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 51c | 233.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 70c | 214.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c7…bdbbbacked No | 33c | 209.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +8.7wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 18c | 179.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 80c | 175$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 7c | 159.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 8c | 153.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…5a2abacked No | 15c | 152.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 7c | 148.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 8c | 147.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 57c | 147.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…f1f0backed No | 7c | 147.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 48c | 145$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 8c | 136.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 75c | 133.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 130.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 9c | 125.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 67c | 123.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 113.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 110.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 11c | 110.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 104.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…e9bebacked Yes | 71c | 102.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 34c | 99.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked No | 43c | 92.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 36c | 89.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710e…bc22backed Yes | 75c | 89.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed Yes | 45c | 86.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…f570backed No | 21c | 84.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 69c | 84.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed No | 48c | 83.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 79.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 66c | 76.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked Yes | 62c | 74.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcc…a2fabacked Yes | 69c | 72.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 44c | 70.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 56c | 70.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 61.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9239…d6a4backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 40c | 59.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3496…3513backed Yes | 34c | 59.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 56.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 41c | 54.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +202.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…7fd7backed Yes | 32c | 53.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…3710backed Yes | 56c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880f…631abacked Yes | 49c | 50.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…ccc8backed No | 20c | 50.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9039…d819backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 55c | 45.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 52c | 45.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked Yes | 50c | 43.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd47…249ebacked Yes | 46c | 42.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 35c | 42.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…9e1ebacked Yes | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…fe3ebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…2d91backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba2…315cbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…06fcbacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…6279backed No | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 36c | 37.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 43c | 37.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…4e9ebacked Yes | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?this page
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and 5%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and 6%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.