Stocks · resolved market
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00421d9b5a880b3493f2bba63dd1c72e302769c59336c10947ce28605634f916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1c7…bdbbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,588$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 29c | 760.14$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 70c | 605.95$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 563.68$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 380.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 1,445 | 8.8%127 W · 1,318 L | -53.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 339.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 16c | 317.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 30c | 268.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 39c | 261.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 20c | 197.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 154.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 153.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 14c | 152.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 139.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb324…6f82backed Yes | 19c | 139.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 131.62$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5f…7ecebacked Yes | 17c | 118.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…019fbacked Yes | 32c | 116.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 10c | 111.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 11c | 111.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 77c | 108.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 79c | 106.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…ccc8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…f34ebacked Yes | 12c | 81.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…50e0backed Yes | 19c | 80.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea0…873fbacked Yes | 16c | 73.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 34c | 68.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 21c | 57.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 41.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…4b53backed No | 78c | 32.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?this page
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and 5%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and 6%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.