TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7ea0…873f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$26.51
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$4.4
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
76ers vs. Hawksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$29.9
Bucks vs. Thunderbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+426.3%+$66.59
Magic vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Lakers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50.63
Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$36.68
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+81.8%+$33.01
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+108.3%+$43.33
76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+96.1%+$39.36
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.78
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$7.64
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$10.86
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$9.03
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$23.98
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.74
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)backed Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+203%+$30.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$94.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.