Stocks · resolved market
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ff713f70b6cef8d765a246176399256c3d93fffb2cff1f8d0ee8e701976516e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1c7…bdbbbacked Yes | 6c | 779.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235d…4be3backed Yes | 5c | 581$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d74…7a3ebacked Yes | 5c | 581$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…3b83backed Yes | 5c | 577$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ff…14a4backed Yes | 5c | 577$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba3…c6e0backed Yes | 5c | 544$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa611…3a6ebacked Yes | 5c | 536$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…a0fdbacked Yes | 5c | 467$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…4aa9backed Yes | 5c | 461$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 419.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 7c | 401.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 247.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…42e1backed Yes | 9c | 229.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb324…6f82backed Yes | 13c | 143.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fb…6910backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?this page
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and 5%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and 6%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?No won
- Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.