TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes79c25,000$19,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,165.897749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9efd…ad00backed No20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No20c3,679$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.368149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0748…fb1ebacked No15c3,591$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No20c3,411$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.5414729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes77c2,399$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.8214356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x37a2…775dbacked No21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Yes76c1,987$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.82785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick77cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fd…d854backed No20c1,547$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No20c1,469$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.88541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No20c1,315$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3434333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked No20c1,200$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24080%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No14c1,071$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.086336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed No22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No20c967.39$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.861233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes76c913.28$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.7615445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No23c874.43$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7533421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No21c740.74$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.561723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No22c739.19$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2413625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No18c699.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1262157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+86.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No22c690.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5215431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No10c648.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8118041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No18c624.21$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.298051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No16c613$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7321033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed No21c600$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No22c594.66$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.23941%16 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No21c548$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.085839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No20c505.11$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9217140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…2ec2backed No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb68c…eda5backed No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No10c483.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.049010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed No20c457.45$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.84185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-92.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6718…b802backed No37c455.81$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2266…ff5abacked No37c455.16$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f0c…f907backed No36c445.13$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11b3…6139backed No36c437.28$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6350…5804backed No36c435.75$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf795…9249backed No36c433.7$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbac…6d90backed No36c431.89$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6535…ca35backed No36c431.54$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No21c426.2$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8210739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf788…d690backed No36c423.3$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a9…516abacked No20c405$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No18c375$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9513143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No21c371.52$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.026311.1%7 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-71.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x01fa…7a59backed No20c369$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes59c367.61$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.922948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ca…50e1backed Yes80c359.17$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea52…ea25backed Yes80c350$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed No19c345.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.751947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cc…be60backed No27c314.78$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No22c309.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.133116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d00…0121backed No21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6350%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No12c300$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3514019.3%27 W · 113 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes43c273.78$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.227534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes78c268.02$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.023458.8%20 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No18c255$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.914562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe214…7bdabacked Yes57c250.87$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.54531.1%14 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-44.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.55547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa74b…688cbacked Yes57c248.64$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No21c248$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.086036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e5…99f9backed No21c246$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7d…8218backed Yes57c232.16$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6356…cc3dbacked Yes57c228.98$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb6…3cb6backed No44c228.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5337…329abacked No21c228$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c4…7b8abacked No20c228$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…4906backed No44c223.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bff…abc6backed No44c223.5$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…a5adbacked No44c223.43$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb498…3bbbbacked No44c223.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34d2…696fbacked Yes57c222.17$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f5d…52e9backed Yes57c219.57$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19e5…73c6backed No44c218.54$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b38…4599backed No44c218.18$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee64…62f4backed Yes57c217.26$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.423100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd822…d998backed No44c217.05$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3030…0059backed No44c216.82$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5062…55edbacked No44c216.26$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e8…ba32backed No44c216.09$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e8…c419backed Yes57c215.59$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f98…14d1backed No44c214.27$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea7b…cb74backed No44c214.14$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes45c214$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7624861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc864…fb14backed No44c213.22$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2196…e3d4backed No44c213.1$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c73…cc40backed No44c212.86$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe8…215bbacked No44c212.71$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b08…fe82backed No44c212.56$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8af1…4768backed No44c212.52$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1201…924abacked No68c212$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.961080%8 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0887…076cbacked No44c211.95$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6670…e1d1backed No44c211.75$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…c664backed No44c211.68$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7785…1c26backed No44c211.23$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b12…e00fbacked No44c211.18$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.