Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abraham Enriquez be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9742f18cef305a2cc778f412b33d106f2905469bfa1f031b8eb874ff90b8690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 3,836$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.02 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,363$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 1c | 1,229$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 14c | 938$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 65c | 603$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 35c | 475$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 67c | 469$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 33c | 469$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 25c | 417$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 75c | 417$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 67c | 407$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 33c | 407$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 80c | 329$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 20c | 329$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 76c | 320$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 24c | 320$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed Yes | 24c | 257$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 76c | 257$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…ff6cbacked Yes | 11c | 204.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 161.41$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 35c | 128$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 89.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 82.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 33c | 77.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 20c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes | 25c | 59.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 66c | 34.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 30.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 67c | 27.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abraham Enriquez be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?this page
- Will James Barbee be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?No won
- Will Matthew Smith be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?No won
- Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.