World Politics · resolved market
Will Nepali Congress win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa862610eaae930b47655a8d81ca88c48d266e013e842483365f3fa4815c3d708
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,116 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 79c | 5,330$4,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,225.57 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 20c | 4,417$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,552.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 33c | 1,349$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.05 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 39c | 1,296$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.63 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…4967backed Yes | 63c | 780$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…a44ebacked No | 4c | 779.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed No | 15c | 683$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…f51ebacked No | 2c | 612.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 46c | 603.48$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 41c | 596.16$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.43 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 383.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.61 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05cd…92dcbacked Yes | 58c | 363.15$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 11c | 345.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 342.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568a…4da5backed No | 5c | 292.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b1…8327backed Yes | 51c | 248.53$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…67d6backed No | 10c | 238.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 31c | 235.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…fcacbacked Yes | 43c | 228.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 37c | 196.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…fa57backed Yes | 48c | 162.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 155.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 15c | 155$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 18c | 152.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 26c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6745…f6e1backed Yes | 68c | 141.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…4fb1backed Yes | 79c | 140.34$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 138.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 27c | 136.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed No | 16c | 122.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ff…0a03backed Yes | 47c | 114.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 57c | 109.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 45c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 38c | 101.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 99.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 53c | 96.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…87d1backed Yes | 68c | 95.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…e85fbacked No | 16c | 92.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b0…a5a6backed Yes | 40c | 91.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231d…9f2dbacked Yes | 39c | 74.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 70.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 39c | 69.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 62c | 68.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 41c | 66.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 32c | 60.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae85…a62ebacked No | 39c | 57.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d4…7fb5backed Yes | 42c | 56.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…4e03backed No | 36c | 55.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed Yes | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 60c | 52.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0025…644cbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09b…479abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…2856backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 62c | 45.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 56c | 44.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 57c | 43.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 40c | 40.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5613…31abbacked Yes | 62c | 39.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 32c | 33.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 48c | 32.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…4d2fbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 60c | 29.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 28.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed Yes | 49c | 27.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e50abacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 61c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd1…a23ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nepali Congress win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?this page
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Nepali Communist Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Rastriya Prajatantra Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.