World Politics · resolved market
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb20081a082c4d15cb478c250c86c99064075ffac321b2e04a0860bac7b048b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,795 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 15c | 4,914$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,549$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…395fbacked Yes | 8c | 825.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 7c | 825.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…67d6backed Yes | 7c | 762.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 650.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 13c | 635.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6573backed Yes | 19c | 533.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…4967backed Yes | 6c | 448.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…a44ebacked Yes | 3c | 390.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568a…4da5backed Yes | 8c | 386.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…f507backed Yes | 4c | 300.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…24cebacked Yes | 7c | 245.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 7c | 195.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 183.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0025…644cbacked Yes | 12c | 170.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6427…b600backed Yes | 40c | 125.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 14c | 105.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d4…7fb5backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22e…7e95backed Yes | 11c | 100.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 60.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…4d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 38.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?this page
- Will Nepali Communist Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Nepali Congress win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?Yes won
- Will Rastriya Prajatantra Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.