TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$251,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,592 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x36ec…0a8fbacked Yes9c8,567$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes8c8,200$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6245825.9%15 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8727backed Yes11c7,600$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…d427backed Yes8c6,247$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes5c5,750$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.56216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb88d…6c32backed Yes9c5,556$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d6…adabbacked Yes10c5,279$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c3,942$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.382522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes4c3,709$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.88387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc03e…93edbacked Yes6c3,532$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes4c3,130$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7628826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes7c2,668$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ef…39c1backed Yes8c2,558$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c2,471$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.13042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c2,330$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2721713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…a29fbacked Yes4c2,308$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x737e…c602backed Yes5c2,259$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc790…8260backed Yes5c2,196$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36f…ac47backed Yes7c2,178$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,157$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.091,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,125$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1826312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked Yes8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357d…8c4fbacked Yes9c1,761$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes4c1,760$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.186931.9%22 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes6c1,650$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes6c1,600$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c1,579$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.94865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca3…335dbacked Yes8c1,550$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4c…b4f4backed Yes3c1,525$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes4c1,500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.12157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29e5…0cb0backed Yes3c1,494$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a1c…d8debacked Yes7c1,428$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f7…087cbacked Yes4c1,337$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100220%0 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes5c1,243$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.134548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,236$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.82792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf504…9ac1backed Yes8c1,230$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779a…5792backed Yes8c1,225$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaac…e5bebacked Yes8c1,181$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b9…a8cdbacked Yes3c1,162$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdf…8e4ebacked Yes9c1,061$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4292…0fb8backed Yes13c1,047$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x891c…e455backed Yes5c1,034$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c992.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.952110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes8c930$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.112639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe399…7dc1backed Yes9c902.89$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59f…35c5backed Yes11c900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe559…de84backed Yes9c900$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes7c888$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.163135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes3c870$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e9…afc4backed Yes9c820.72$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c783.07$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6730127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes3c776.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.625320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x452a…6fe1backed Yes5c718.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…b662backed Yes9c693.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes4c644.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd636…c5dbbacked Yes3c618.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes13c599.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcdc…5247backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c553.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.862977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d7…f73abacked Yes2c550.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.01150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa601…cad0backed Yes8c530$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6641…99f9backed Yes3c506.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc241…1487backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5447…23c7backed Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes3c489.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4430…541fbacked Yes14c485.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes7c482.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.81933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c468.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.47731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d50…a391backed Yes7c460$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes4c459.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.479839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes4c436.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.95156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes3c430$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.97545.6%3 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a5d…c8b4backed Yes4c424.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2732…e1a5backed Yes10c401.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449637.5%36 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd25e…f458backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ee…81cbbacked Yes5c394.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes11c392.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4920418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93b5…0f43backed Yes9c390$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+35.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes4c388.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.225612.5%7 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9842…2ac6backed Yes3c354.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27da…db81backed Yes5c300.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x64a7…2133backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+58.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaff…fe2dbacked Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa008…f4acbacked Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes7c295.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4720731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda4e…f81cbacked Yes9c284.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f4c…d670backed Yes7c275.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce2…de3dbacked Yes7c275$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b3…7cfabacked Yes8c256.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c6…ed57backed Yes8c255$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x538c…d669backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ac…1a82backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4256…e529backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.