Us Politics · resolved market
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x126548b6780412ab9e4006455c55df7892f16f77d1c4ca70709e4c6f8035912b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 18c | 4,410$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.73 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 18c | 3,200$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.21 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,601$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.76 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 68c | 2,263$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.76 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,404$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…fbd7backed Yes | 1c | 1,330$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked Yes | 20c | 1,013$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…fe51backed Yes | 16c | 1,003$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 68c | 895.99$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 4c | 864.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked No | 30c | 844.43$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 53c | 650$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.7 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…92bcbacked Yes | 3c | 556.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 537.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked No | 24c | 502.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 67c | 430.76$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 24c | 321.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 77c | 281.23$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed Yes | 7c | 273$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 248.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.25 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 234.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 34c | 220$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 73c | 218.64$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 60c | 210.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 200.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 12c | 176.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 48c | 150.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 8c | 135.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 17c | 133.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 19c | 129.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 14c | 125.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x383f…1d15backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 123.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 115.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d64…c92ebacked Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…3f0dbacked Yes | 18c | 98.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 94.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 75c | 67.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…2a74backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 60.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…13fbbacked Yes | 24c | 50.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 35c | 46.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -9.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…5975backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 77c | 35.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 78c | 26.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc763…e8d3backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.