World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 130 and 159 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ebe2c374b43b2bd470ca5e44eeaac6b789bb53bdf27696c8809a26e69ffe6bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 4c | 2,821$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 1,553$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 998.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 315.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 307.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 223$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…a2cbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 130 and 159 seats?this page
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by at least 250 seats?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 160 and 189 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 190 and 219 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 220 and 249 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by less than 130 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.