World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 220 and 249 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d9b43f4fd301d4d831082b34b3e541d0a8736a50cdaab45fb1fc21c15da3553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Yes | 24c | 1,006$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…f375backed Yes | 13c | 698.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 5c | 638.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 25c | 579.29$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.47 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 509.47$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.18 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 6c | 493.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked Yes | 25c | 428.17$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba24…2232backed Yes | 25c | 394.83$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 329.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 74c | 209.97$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 23c | 159.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…74efbacked No | 77c | 129.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 11c | 115.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…af41backed No | 75c | 57.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 77c | 52.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 48.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 30.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 72c | 25.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…f678backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 220 and 249 seats?this page
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by at least 250 seats?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 130 and 159 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 160 and 189 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 190 and 219 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by less than 130 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.