World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by at least 250 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x412f8e8219d55bd0922648f6cb2a2beec77fb6f1eae7b1375ae60754e1794293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93e9…22a6backed No | 3c | 3,202$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 1,188$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 1,092$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 15c | 939$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.91 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 10c | 700$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8abe…61debacked No | 3c | 630.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 21c | 570$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.26per pick | 22cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 554$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba24…2232backed Yes | 38c | 501.63$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked No | 10c | 401.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6c…920cbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…069abacked No | 12c | 320$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…f375backed Yes | 22c | 300.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…85f5backed Yes | 29c | 292.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…af41backed Yes | 18c | 270.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 76c | 264.39$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.32 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…0dbcbacked Yes | 20c | 251.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…196abacked Yes | 40c | 251.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…c098backed Yes | 24c | 174.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eca…bafdbacked Yes | 16c | 170.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +197.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 58c | 167.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 13c | 153.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 18c | 150$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 73c | 140.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 135$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 9c | 126.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…6264backed No | 10c | 121.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 16c | 115$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 113.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 69c | 103.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 17c | 100.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…a3c7backed Yes | 47c | 86.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220b…d522backed Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 78c | 53.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 34c | 38.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…d69cbacked Yes | 75c | 33.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 80c | 29.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by at least 250 seats?this page
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 130 and 159 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 160 and 189 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 190 and 219 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 220 and 249 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by less than 130 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.