Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf87ca1fbdb8fc23a6831444fc671a674cd12c1a761dbbf2bef1b12d7747f3cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,718 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 1,347$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 44c | 1,301$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 750$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 52c | 577.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 502.87$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 19c | 499.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 461.52$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 46c | 435.13$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.31 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 2c | 435$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 409.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.71 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 34c | 399.66$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 59c | 381.25$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 358.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 59c | 354.48$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed Yes | 34c | 326.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 39c | 317$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.06 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 45c | 300$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.9 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 13c | 272.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 21c | 262.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 244.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 51c | 227$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 19c | 217.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 64c | 211.48$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 200.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 40c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 61c | 199.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 56c | 198$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 196.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 189.85$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 188$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 53c | 187.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3f…aeacbacked No | 46c | 181$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 32c | 162.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…95c0backed No | 62c | 162.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed Yes | 48c | 155.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…6181backed Yes | 45c | 152$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…f943backed Yes | 9c | 146.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +112%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 146.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…d60abacked No | 46c | 146$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 55c | 145.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 50c | 144$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed No | 39c | 141.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…560dbacked Yes | 53c | 138.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 72c | 138.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 38c | 132.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 34c | 128.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 27c | 124.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 49c | 123.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…5fc7backed Yes | 41c | 110.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 50c | 106.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 33c | 102.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 68c | 102.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…bbecbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…6679backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 94.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 70c | 93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 37c | 90.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 56c | 90.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed No | 52c | 87.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 61c | 86.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 33c | 83.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed No | 75c | 83.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 62c | 81.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 36c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…cf27backed Yes | 15c | 77.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 39c | 77.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…3703backed Yes | 38c | 76.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…129abacked Yes | 37c | 74.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeadc…7575backed No | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 72.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 42c | 70.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24b…e2b5backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…8faabacked Yes | 65c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…1985backed Yes | 48c | 62.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b5…1407backed No | 65c | 62.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ab…5770backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44db…8e77backed Yes | 38c | 54.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +195.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 53.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 53.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 53.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…1151backed Yes | 50c | 52.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 52.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 50.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 45c | 50.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…de97backed No | 63c | 50.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…8f0ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.