Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10daa5fb28efd4f75245ef206c23e0b189cf56f79709d20739c0879a1abc6958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,965 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 7,934$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…04aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 24c | 1,281$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.84 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 12c | 1,164$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 6c | 799.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 711.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 592.03$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked Yes | 2c | 537.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 535.37$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.9 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 466.14$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 431.23$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 397.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 354.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 12c | 319.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 20c | 305.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 18c | 299.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 12c | 263.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 261.55$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 216.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 20c | 212.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 74c | 211.55$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 193.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…c1bbbacked No | 80c | 185.69$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…0987backed Yes | 22c | 169.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 7c | 165.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…a650backed Yes | 19c | 165.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 35c | 163.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…10babacked Yes | 36c | 159.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…a49cbacked Yes | 6c | 154.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 79c | 153.83$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 72c | 151.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 68c | 146.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 19c | 144$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 139$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 36c | 138.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…b145backed Yes | 16c | 132.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 26c | 132$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed No | 73c | 129$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Yes | 23c | 127.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…29cebacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…de4cbacked No | 75c | 122.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 119.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 19c | 119$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71c…1af4backed Yes | 12c | 116.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 114.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 22c | 113.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c9…7ee8backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 27c | 106.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…7aa6backed Yes | 28c | 105.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9f…bf5ebacked Yes | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed No | 78c | 101.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 69c | 101.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 19c | 100.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3436…4ff0backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…4383backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 98.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…8171backed Yes | 27c | 97.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…c246backed Yes | 23c | 85.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 26c | 84.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…6badbacked Yes | 28c | 83.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed No | 75c | 82.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 72c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4265…3741backed No | 66c | 79.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +352%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed Yes | 25c | 79.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5200backed Yes | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 76.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 76.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 34c | 75.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked No | 78c | 73.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…b4f6backed Yes | 32c | 71.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 38c | 65.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…b668backed Yes | 29c | 63.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…129abacked Yes | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 80c | 61.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 23c | 53.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 53.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 52.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…1938backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.