Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x474083053ac49427f7645c380b616a5255367c80c8954ae36417efe4149484ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,188 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd052…bf31backed Yes | 34c | 1,488$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 25c | 1,259$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.49 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 1,240$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.01 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 1,240$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 17c | 906.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.51 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked No | 76c | 799.99$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.99 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…c880backed Yes | 37c | 769.77$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 751$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 743.37$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 80c | 695.75$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.6 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 16c | 692.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.78 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 668.76$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.15 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 8c | 559.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 557.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.89 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 546.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 20c | 539.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.48 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 8c | 519.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 12c | 509.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.38 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed No | 79c | 499.99$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 25c | 499.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.98 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 19c | 496.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 53c | 471.03$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 6c | 437.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.16 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 11c | 397.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.17 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 370.21$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…e2dbbacked No | 68c | 353.99$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 353.74$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.27 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 20c | 340.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.87 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 19c | 324.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.43 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 323.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.64 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 313.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.68 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 28c | 301$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 50c | 300$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 21c | 278.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.19 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 51c | 277.41$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 10c | 276.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.81 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 8c | 276.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.27 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 268.26$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 267.21$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 258.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 21c | 236.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.43 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 64c | 219.4$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 36c | 210.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.87 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 64c | 209.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed No | 75c | 209.33$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed No | 61c | 199.88$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 27c | 185.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 19c | 176.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 57c | 160.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 19c | 159.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.17 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…2a92backed No | 71c | 154.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 32c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 14c | 150$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 21c | 144.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 144$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 142.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…53f6backed No | 75c | 140.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 72c | 139.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…24f3backed Yes | 14c | 139.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 14c | 137.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.95 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed Yes | 20c | 135.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…da6abacked Yes | 11c | 133.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed No | 65c | 124.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 15c | 116.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 13c | 116$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…06c1backed Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 15c | 110.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked No | 79c | 109$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 42c | 108.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 31c | 106.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 106.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 30c | 105.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5265…0d3bbacked Yes | 33c | 105.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 104.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 45c | 103.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 102.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 20c | 101.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…ad60backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…d0cfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 98.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…823bbacked No | 80c | 96.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…d25abacked Yes | 11c | 96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 20c | 95.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed Yes | 20c | 94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…0799backed Yes | 16c | 91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 12c | 90.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.