Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b8a668c3a2c324401783f4240a9fe644c9623533e7bdfbcd25299ebd841099c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,807 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked Yes | 0c | 16,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 5,740$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,064$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 2c | 979.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 868.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 5c | 646.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 13c | 619.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 504.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 475.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 7c | 413.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…5999backed Yes | 15c | 397.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 394.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…b145backed Yes | 9c | 315.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 308.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 6c | 278.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Yes | 8c | 239.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 10c | 225.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 6c | 224.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c9…7ee8backed Yes | 6c | 177.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24b…e2b5backed Yes | 9c | 165.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 7c | 164.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 6c | 161.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed Yes | 13c | 156.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…7aa6backed Yes | 12c | 148.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 114.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…8171backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.