Token Launches · resolved market
Will GRVT launch a token by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2803376f8cfab2bc1bc7ee77759785decb1d47946a5f76eb27aeb0448df7ca5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89e3…48f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,801$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…206fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,241$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…ea23backed Yes | 6c | 1,106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…6b36backed Yes | 6c | 512.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8425…7ff8backed Yes | 8c | 487.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…2563backed Yes | 14c | 302.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…8f56backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…1360backed Yes | 8c | 165.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -78%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 143.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc07e…e5acbacked No | 80c | 127.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GRVT launch a token by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.