Token Launches · resolved market
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8f4d0caf3695441e0b5dfcff1d88516679a07a771d497b5aa1f586b1662ef7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e4a…1078backed Yes | 5c | 11,087$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.08 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,309$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed Yes | 12c | 2,614$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.9 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,585$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…6dd5backed Yes | 21c | 2,212$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf530…241ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,768$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…58bebacked Yes | 1c | 1,453$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…f507backed Yes | 73c | 1,210$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…b171backed No | 76c | 1,150$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes | 32c | 1,142$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.98 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…958abacked Yes | 3c | 1,064$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…28d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,031$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed No | 70c | 949.08$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.72 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 57c | 904.28$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.79 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…e262backed Yes | 8c | 900$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 4c | 694.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…8978backed Yes | 4c | 693.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc05…1843backed Yes | 9c | 659.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 637.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 63c | 630.85$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 526.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 23c | 501.17$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 427.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 9c | 377.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.77 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…c181backed Yes | 18c | 350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…47eebacked Yes | 30c | 329.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc9…58b7backed Yes | 8c | 304.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…c185backed Yes | 14c | 263.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…3f9dbacked Yes | 11c | 257.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0f…ae40backed Yes | 15c | 254.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Yes | 22c | 239.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 38c | 193.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 187.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…8b62backed Yes | 34c | 177.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…8f56backed Yes | 21c | 153.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 36c | 140.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 136.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 127$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…7458backed No | 66c | 117.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 14c | 114.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed Yes | 11c | 114.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ea…3955backed Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 19c | 102.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…ecfebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaec…1711backed Yes | 31c | 99.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…6b36backed Yes | 41c | 99.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 71c | 98.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 64c | 91.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 47c | 85.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 48c | 84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 25c | 80.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…aba1backed Yes | 63c | 79.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…6d16backed No | 64c | 74.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…cb4cbacked Yes | 19c | 73.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…7328backed No | 56c | 73.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 22c | 70.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9662…af06backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…2581backed Yes | 52c | 63.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 37c | 59.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 28c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 29c | 51.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…49e1backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e1…4e79backed Yes | 29c | 39.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 39.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…d99cbacked Yes | 80c | 37.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 54c | 32.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc3…cd8ebacked Yes | 56c | 32.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 28.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…af82backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed Yes | 53c | 24.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3b…1418backed No | 45c | 23.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 51c | 22.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will GRVT launch a token by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.