Token Launches · resolved market
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf210e50287d59f66df7395b3e41ffaf84dccf5f4f903b20fff27117e0aa3aa5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590a…3699backed No | 2c | 6,949$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 3c | 3,442$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…5767backed No | 16c | 2,344$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,694$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 1c | 1,417$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,309$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,199$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 20c | 1,186$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.36 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce1…d112backed No | 38c | 662.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 2c | 661.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cf59backed Yes | 79c | 427.79$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 397.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 383.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 19c | 316.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 16c | 289.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…7458backed Yes | 76c | 288.76$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 16c | 168.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 15c | 129$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…e055backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 66c | 96.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 16c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x199b…62eabacked Yes | 77c | 84.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 71.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 25c | 70.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 80c | 61.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…3f9dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?this page
- Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will GRVT launch a token by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.