TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6ee3…6d16

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
93
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.7
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.22
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.2
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winnerbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+130.2%+$15.49
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winnerbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.8
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+203%+$46.9
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$18.3
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$21
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$10.8
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+75.1%+$107.2
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.85
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.49
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$33.33
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.74
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+263.8%+$50.46
All 22 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroesbacked Hanwha Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.7
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinosbacked NC Dinos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$19.19
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giantsbacked Hanwha Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$175
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giantsbacked Hanwha Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigersbacked Samsung Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.79
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bearsbacked Hanwha Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.28
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigersbacked Lotte Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lionsbacked NC Dinos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+91.1%+$28.6
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. NC Dinosbacked NC Dinos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$18.79
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Hanwha Eaglesbacked Hanwha Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$23.2
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padresbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. KT Wizbacked KT Wiz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroesbacked KT Wiz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.01
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinosbacked Samsung Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+101.5%+$27.7
KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eaglesbacked LG Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.8
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinosbacked Samsung Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.54
All 17 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$31
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.3
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$8.4
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.2
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$15.3
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.47
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$12.28
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.24
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$9.02
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 15 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+57.1%+$54.5
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+72%+$96.3
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.9
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+150%+$24
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$12
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$24.25
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$34.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$26.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$13.49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.