World Politics · resolved market
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by less than 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d1f3c89aa5796c1d2f0206f5af240d69873063fb5e9c000bc563d257e541dff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 1c | 43,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 63c | 2,118$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…56d0backed Yes | 79c | 1,057$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 21c | 1,006$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.97 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes | 60c | 979.52$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.52 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 27c | 831.52$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.8 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 31c | 799.14$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.36 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed Yes | 70c | 635$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…5653backed Yes | 60c | 631.29$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…d77ebacked Yes | 68c | 462.07$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 27c | 398.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 35c | 356$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 355.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…4e57backed Yes | 71c | 338.45$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 337.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.54 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 34c | 296.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 38c | 285.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 285$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed Yes | 58c | 274.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 34cpaid | +219.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked Yes | 80c | 266.29$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 65c | 243.31$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…eea8backed Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 37c | 138$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…9150backed Yes | 71c | 135.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 119.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 116$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 68c | 114.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 31c | 95.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 95.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e1…9017backed Yes | 70c | 83.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 78c | 83.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 57c | 72.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 34c | 67.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 67.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 31c | 59.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 22c | 54.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…1e00backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…569cbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 55c | 31.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f9…e37dbacked Yes | 74c | 31.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…6d16backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…03a7backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…e150backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 67c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by less than 10%?this page
- Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by 20% or more?No won
- Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by between 10% and 20%?No won
- Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.