World Politics · resolved market
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by between 10% and 20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1298d3024ad0bfa0f93856f2205e53a36d035d8ed3e53fc8086beabfe124ad0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 23c | 3,627$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.71 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 899.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 23c | 885.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 470.66$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.64 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 16c | 400.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…a7f8backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 352.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 336$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 335.99$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597b…9ea8backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…3ec7backed Yes | 17c | 246.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 220$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 205$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…d77ebacked Yes | 18c | 197.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc937…cbe9backed Yes | 10c | 195.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 18c | 176$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 70c | 138$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 132.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca56…7f4dbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +1,983.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ba…0598backed Yes | 15c | 88.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 80.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Yes | 17c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…4e57backed Yes | 30c | 65.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed Yes | 17c | 58.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 66c | 53.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +8.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 68c | 27.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…1b5bbacked No | 79c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by between 10% and 20%?this page
- Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by 20% or more?No won
- Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by less than 10%?Yes won
- Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.