TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,147 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes12c1,086$129 inLost-$128.885535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed Yes14c792.98$109 inLost-$10930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes4c781.96$32 inLost-$31.562,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes13c776.86$100 inLost-$1005129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-8.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes3c420$11 inLost-$10.57915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes5c404.94$21 inLost-$20.685612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes14c328.68$45 inLost-$45.0637830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes16c311.05$50 inLost-$508918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes13c247.6$33 inLost-$33.1924732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfac2…6d07backed Yes14c202.04$28 inLost-$28.23010%3 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes10c158.12$17 inLost-$16.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes11c155.94$16 inLost-$16.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes11c150$17 inLost-$17560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked Yes11c112.07$12 inLost-$11.9837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed Yes11c109.25$12 inLost-$11.67633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes12c99.99$12 inLost-$11.7541220.6%85 W · 327 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes15c97.64$15 inLost-$157326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes17c65.95$11 inLost-$11.213221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.