Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Tracie Burke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x381d4dbc31885a6d2af5cd3561324c0b1c37712c2e65418bc06d36e3110f42ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,511$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,048$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 2c | 900.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 13c | 548.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 431.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 263.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…dc22backed Yes | 5c | 243.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e9…dcf1backed Yes | 5c | 206.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 192.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…3c98backed Yes | 52c | 191.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…f4a7backed Yes | 10c | 183$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 148.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…dc9cbacked Yes | 16c | 102.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a098backed Yes | 14c | 87.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 69.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 54.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbac6…bc55backed Yes | 31c | 53.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 22c | 52.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…8f89backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…3b9fbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…7fd7backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3376…3c7fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 78c | 16.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tracie Burke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?this page
- Will Gary Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Yes won
- Will Nick Albares be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.