Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3edc56ca11329c8ba549478390a9e45cd0bc93c385c89a645bc024d1f34ebbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,936$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.47 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 43c | 1,036$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.72 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 954.85$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 38c | 639.58$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.43 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 49c | 533.71$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.71 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 508.55$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 492$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 66c | 442.69$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 438.17$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 57c | 437.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.04 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 379.49$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 360.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 57c | 293.7$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 45c | 282.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 68c | 276.1$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 274.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 274$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 53c | 240.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 205.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 43c | 197.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 182$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 46c | 176.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 172.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 57c | 168.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 60c | 166.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 47c | 159.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 158.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 77c | 155.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 151$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 132.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 127.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 44c | 125.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 124.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 123.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 22c | 122.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 50c | 122.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 57c | 121.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 29c | 121.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 120.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 80c | 115.71$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 113.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 111.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 58c | 109.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 107.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 106.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 99.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 99.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 42c | 97.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 92.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 43c | 89.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 87.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 51c | 84.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 60c | 83.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…8c45backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 77.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 75.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7444backed No | 21c | 75.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 15c | 74.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 44c | 72.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 57c | 72.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 56c | 71.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 58c | 69.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 69.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 54c | 67.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 52c | 66.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 64.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 65c | 62.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 19c | 61.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 60c | 61.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 59.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 51c | 57.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 59c | 56.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 43c | 55.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 53c | 49.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 57c | 48.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 47c | 48.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 43c | 46.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 46.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 45c | 45.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 57c | 44.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 44.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 41.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 31c | 39.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 39.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 56c | 39.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 55c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.