Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd5fa2fd0c06bdd6d76c0eef026c6f392ca965b52602d10756690388cfcefff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,095$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 78c | 1,875$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.22 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 31c | 1,101$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.4 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 867.3$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 705.94$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 559.07$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 26c | 555.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 537.52$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 508.6$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 501.63$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 452.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 55c | 452.02$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 406.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 30c | 403.57$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.67 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 64c | 397.25$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 24c | 395.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 288.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 277$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 276.65$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 270.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 18c | 222.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 35c | 216.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 210$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 187.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 172.62$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed No | 57c | 171.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 17c | 170.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 169.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 29c | 155$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed No | 80c | 154.61$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 151.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 15c | 132.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 29c | 131.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5cf7backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 127.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 123.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 18c | 120.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 116$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 108.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 20c | 100.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 20c | 100.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 99.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 99.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 66c | 94.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 93.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 88.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 87.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 84.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed No | 68c | 84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 81.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…d1bcbacked Yes | 37c | 81.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 80.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 79.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 76.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 66.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 76c | 64.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 32c | 62.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 56.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 50.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 71c | 49.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 47.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 31c | 44.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 42.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 68c | 39.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 41c | 36.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 76c | 36.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 35.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 32.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 32.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 32.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…a534backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 29.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 28.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 69c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 37c | 27.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed No | 79c | 27.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.