Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73f353e4092cb4ce0e11c099e247be9c354b960dc30e9b0aa1c14dd7768da107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 75c | 5,047$3,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.11 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 24c | 3,879$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.02 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 26c | 1,491$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.04 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 75c | 1,379$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.29 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 882.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 22c | 729.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.06 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 29c | 684.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 628.06$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.38 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 21c | 609.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 594.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 25c | 587.12$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 539.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 78c | 528.28$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.34 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 525$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.18 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 15c | 520.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 519.6$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 499.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 496.54$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 18c | 494.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 467.59$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 444.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 22c | 424.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 71c | 410.96$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 25c | 370.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 28c | 320$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 23c | 289.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 23c | 270.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 22c | 247.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 21c | 245.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8779…3eaabacked Yes | 23c | 243.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 17c | 228.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 209$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 32c | 199.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 192.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…50f6backed Yes | 19c | 184.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 173.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 162.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 151.01$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7caa…f4efbacked Yes | 23c | 145.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 134.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 134.38$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 129.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed No | 79c | 126.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 115.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 112.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 110.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 19c | 103.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…e575backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…7214backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 97.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 93.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd366…88f5backed Yes | 11c | 93.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 68c | 80.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 80.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 79.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 23c | 79.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 80c | 75.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 75c | 74.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 80c | 72.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 70c | 71.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…657bbacked Yes | 19c | 71.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 71.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 69.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 26c | 69.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 80c | 65.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 17c | 63.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 24c | 63.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 61.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 58.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 57.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 56.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 79c | 55.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…96d7backed No | 78c | 48.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 24c | 45.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 43.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 42.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 30c | 39.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 31c | 33.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 32.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 75c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…2dc4backed No | 65c | 29.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…133ebacked No | 75c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 28.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 77c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 75c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.