TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,091 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes2c7,018$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.452,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…5ca6backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes4c1,979$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0214338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes1c1,556$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.56340%0 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes3c1,469$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0836819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes5c1,036$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9864021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes5c949.6$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2735018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes5c915.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.281,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes28c722.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.479728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes3c544.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes8c501.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d57…63d8backed Yes30c499.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe935…8360backed Yes4c493.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe868…6faebacked Yes3c491.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf25c…98aabacked Yes7c483.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6750%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27e8…8513backed Yes5c482.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.66137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes15c403.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.972,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50bf…c756backed Yes6c393.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea7d…569ebacked Yes3c376.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04e8…a1e8backed Yes4c283.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes5c247.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No74c240$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3514372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes14c234.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No70c224.52$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8649038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c223.44$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.218,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Yes5c222.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.043710.8%4 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No74c217.65$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed Yes5c210.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.166121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7089…791dbacked Yes5c199.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45eb…20cdbacked Yes12c194.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1470%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed Yes18c183.6$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0530859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2b…6eaabacked Yes8c178$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.361729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No78c171$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8925175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes15c164.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.361729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6941…d614backed Yes26c155.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c136.63$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.253,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed No73c127.17$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c117.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked No73c116$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.483441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes14c107.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.831,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No79c107.26$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.931868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes29c96.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.56835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51a1…8981backed Yes28c96.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.454862.5%30 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes38c78.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x684f…cef7backed Yes33c75.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255435.2%19 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes27c75.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc060…c2fcbacked Yes29c73.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes14c73.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.421,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5d8…1db0backed Yes19c62.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-62%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f04…f573backed Yes27c61.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.59633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f3…315fbacked Yes38c52.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick47cpaid-85.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9a5f…7014backed Yes31c48.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.113619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e2c2backed Yes47c45.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.11030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7f4…ec06backed No69c44.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.961586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3023…465cbacked No70c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes30c40.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.962420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3c…9764backed Yes28c40.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No65c39.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1444448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes32c38.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.577521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3557…ae87backed Yes40c37.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No66c37.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4747442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4058…9dc6backed Yes29c37.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+76.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099c…18e8backed Yes29c36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.574818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes34c35.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0932738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.924149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No74c33.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.526253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c31.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.42,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e2…5741backed Yes36c31.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No73c30.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3436057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No70c27.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No52c25.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0256265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbed…6221backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x308b…9999backed No73c24.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No64c21.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8826458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a2c…0746backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.85872.4%42 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7518878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b57…52c4backed No71c18.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.263935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked No80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0416968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No74c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.851,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8267…f7b7backed No72c13.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8911656.9%66 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.