Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b28061fec26cfa8c19e1fb5d6ab6e241027254f3f74c6085df653991c19f1b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,604 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 1,278$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,080$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…d070backed Yes | 35c | 954.17$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 2c | 944$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 920.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 909.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 851.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 18c | 630.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.95 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 9c | 601$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 571.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 540.04$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 521.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 10c | 436.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 18c | 436.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 30c | 431.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 419.23$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 31c | 399.62$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…aad9backed Yes | 17c | 394.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 383.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 343.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 17c | 328.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 10c | 323.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 17c | 292.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 9c | 285$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 66c | 269.96$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…1151backed Yes | 31c | 256.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 12c | 255.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 252.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 247.59$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 20c | 246.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 213.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 211.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 27c | 199.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 10c | 199.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 13c | 197.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…ca32backed Yes | 11c | 180.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 177.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 175.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 31c | 159.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…6daabacked Yes | 38c | 159$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…0383backed Yes | 27c | 149.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked Yes | 19c | 148.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed Yes | 28c | 140.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 13c | 138.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 133.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…f184backed Yes | 32c | 132$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…d246backed Yes | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 24c | 128.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…bf48backed Yes | 11c | 122.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 25c | 120.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…e93dbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 115.38$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 115.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 35c | 114.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 110.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4a…f767backed Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 19c | 106.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes | 18c | 104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 103.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 12c | 100.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 32c | 97.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 14c | 97.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 92.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 91.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…d614backed Yes | 17c | 90.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d9…05e9backed Yes | 24c | 83.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d18…74c3backed Yes | 13c | 83.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…695dbacked Yes | 18c | 78.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 78.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 34c | 75.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked Yes | 14c | 71.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 33c | 66.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…2a41backed Yes | 20c | 64.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 79c | 62.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb863…b1aabacked No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 54.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8989…d595backed No | 66c | 53.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 52.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 52.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…e758backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…d25abacked No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 66c | 45.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…64e2backed No | 72c | 40.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 78c | 40.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 71c | 38.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 75c | 33.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…7786backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 70c | 30.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 72c | 29.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3b…801cbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b1…dcafbacked No | 79c | 27.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.