TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,604 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes10c1,278$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4136930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes3c1,080$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7112932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f97…d070backed Yes35c954.17$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes2c944$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.831,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c920.18$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.192,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes3c909.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes11c851.15$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.468,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes18c630.39$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes9c601$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes18c571.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.252,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes20c540.04$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10877428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes8c521.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes10c436.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8364021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes18c436.42$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8512329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes30c431.2$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.549653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No75c419.23$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.951,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes31c399.62$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3111533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x030a…aad9backed Yes17c394.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.15728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes11c383.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.927,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes8c343.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0534617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes17c328.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes10c323.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5930428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes17c292.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012330.1%37 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes9c285$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.92814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No66c269.96$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7912154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…1151backed Yes31c256.78$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes12c255.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c252.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No78c247.59$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.621,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes20c246.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6520027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes12c213.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.661,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c211.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.816,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes27c199.96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2426828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes10c199.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9913424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes13c197.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.725742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd75e…ca32backed Yes11c180.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes21c177.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.71,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes20c175.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes31c159.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503850%19 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdec9…6daabacked Yes38c159$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8302…0383backed Yes27c149.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa772…05efbacked Yes19c148.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d0…2295backed Yes28c140.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.212817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+89.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes13c138.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2422028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c133.45$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.873,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…f184backed Yes32c132$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…d246backed Yes21c130$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…22f7backed Yes24c128.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.86319%12 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-56.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf33c…bf48backed Yes11c122.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.372326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes25c120.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes16c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No65c115.38$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8232652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes9c115.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes35c114.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.777536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes31c110.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.881,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce4a…f767backed Yes34c110$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes12c108$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.561,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5afb…92edbacked Yes19c106.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes18c104$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.771225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c103.85$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes12c100.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.387521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1917433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed Yes32c97.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2421722.6%49 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes14c97.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6430442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c92.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.442,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No79c91.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.911,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6941…d614backed Yes17c90.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d9…05e9backed Yes24c83.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d18…74c3backed Yes13c83.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3820…695dbacked Yes18c78.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes32c78.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6151…9848backed Yes34c75.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.531625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e53…b65ebacked Yes14c71.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes33c66.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2715345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6958…2a41backed Yes20c64.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No79c62.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9333450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb863…b1aabacked No68c58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c54.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8989…d595backed No66c53.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No75c52.62$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1841070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c52.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.179,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e41…e758backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.531216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-67.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2806…05ddbacked Yes30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaeb7…d25abacked No68c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+428.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No66c45.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.77361.6%45 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x925f…64e2backed No72c40.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d97…66f8backed No78c40.4$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.724057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No71c38.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0647442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No75c33.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.229943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0e…7786backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No70c30.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.111872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ce…e92abacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.612467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No72c29.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x0a3b…801cbacked No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b1…dcafbacked No79c27.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.