Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd8afd1cab1560704bcfd01bc5c6cdb69ef852d6a0b7e039598ae562e7925da4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,871 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc40…3904backed Yes | 2c | 5,890$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5014…54dfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,408$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 9c | 2,554$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,635$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 3c | 1,607$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 1,575$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 1,431$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 22c | 1,131$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.22 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 14c | 934.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 914.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 4c | 913.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 2c | 906.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 22c | 836.32$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.31 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 6c | 830.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 1c | 795.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 769.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 733.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 78c | 500$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…44bcbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 471$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 4c | 462.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 5c | 444.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 365.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 7c | 321.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 307.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…851abacked Yes | 4c | 305$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 12c | 271.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…18c7backed Yes | 9c | 255$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 5c | 255$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…d246backed Yes | 5c | 249.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 68c | 237.43$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 9c | 229.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…b092backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 199.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a5e6backed Yes | 5c | 195.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 186.37$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 11c | 164$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 15c | 136.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 10c | 128.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes | 20c | 118.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 118.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 15c | 95.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 52c | 85.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf493…df0bbacked Yes | 35c | 84.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 19c | 78.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 74.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 33c | 69.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 25c | 69.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…6282backed No | 56c | 61.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…bf48backed No | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…06d7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62df…1411backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 59c | 48.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 37.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 37c | 37.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f9…0ae6backed No | 56c | 35.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 37c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 35c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7beb…b59bbacked Yes | 51c | 23.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed Yes | 52c | 21.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…faa3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.