Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd057fcca62177785dd79fe8ae4df45c65e240ce60f99c5008412f4f68be41bb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,881 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,172$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,946$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 3c | 1,576$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…04aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 943.67$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 21c | 717.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 10c | 584.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 578.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 570.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 78c | 504.7$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.71 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 357.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 354.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 7c | 324.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 17c | 307.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 280.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 274.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 266.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 22c | 232.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 180$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 12c | 173.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 171.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 164.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…0383backed Yes | 25c | 160.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0b7ebacked Yes | 25c | 160.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 156.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 22c | 152.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 152.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 145$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 9c | 139.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 21c | 138.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 22c | 136.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 25c | 135.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 16c | 133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 10c | 131$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 120.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 108$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 105.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 78c | 98.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 94.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 80c | 88.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 15c | 82.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 71.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 69.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 23c | 68.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 67.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 27c | 50.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 75c | 50.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 41.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 28.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked No | 76c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…b625backed No | 80c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 73c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 74c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…99eabacked No | 78c | 13.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.