TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,354 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes1c2,172$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72340%0 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes12c1,357$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.38,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes2c1,300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes9c803.62$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.651,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c725.93$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…d070backed Yes15c599.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes7c599.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.991,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes16c539.91$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5264021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No71c533.17$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7742857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes23c430.57$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes17c422.82$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4212329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c407.54$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.27,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes17c404.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9420027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9811533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes19c392.88$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.082,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes9c372.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4133620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c367.88$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes22c300.44$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.351,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes13c295$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.41,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No77c289.8$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.461,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No74c284.81$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes16c278.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4835018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…12cabacked Yes6c267.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c257.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.262,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes13c242.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.441,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes27c238.04$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2786420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes14c219.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.82,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No78c217.94$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c215.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x030a…aad9backed Yes14c213$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.82728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes26c200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8302…0383backed Yes30c199.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c199$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.726,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c197.72$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.634,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes19c186.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353850%19 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3183…d6fbbacked Yes30c182.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.991323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6309…6deebacked No73c163.22$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.07425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes13c153.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes13c152.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5286226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0815626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c148$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.43,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed Yes13c147.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.821722.6%49 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes19c141.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.991,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes30c141$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.311038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes19c139.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0822028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes16c127$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes18c125.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes29c120$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.61633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No73c113.85$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.971,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No68c111.94$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9732652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes25c108$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.891,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c7…eea3backed Yes17c107$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6941…d614backed Yes19c106.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No77c102.36$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1341070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d0…2295backed Yes30c101.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+89.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes26c100.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2213424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1834918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eae…eab7backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick71cpaid-47.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2036057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1443525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes30c98.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4612735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.552751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c96.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.949,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes28c90.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3960519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes16c83.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes27c83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.281,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes32c80.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2621333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes22c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2412932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d18…74c3backed Yes19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes27c78.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.686847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes20c76.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7341046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes18c76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.883,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38f…8e46backed Yes34c73.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a59…9a2fbacked Yes34c58.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c49…1d27backed Yes28c57.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3d9…05e9backed Yes35c57.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e41…e758backed Yes27c57.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.691216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-67.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No70c54.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4526828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c7…c52cbacked Yes31c54.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+80.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No76c51.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc7d…305ebacked No72c50.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.073458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1406…43ebbacked Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1454232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.258732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x396a…0891backed Yes36c48.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2af7…570dbacked Yes36c46.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.712462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d65…0d96backed No75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked No74c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.718076.3%61 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.785,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b74…cd27backed No67c30.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.